Fasten Your Seat Belts

Still work in progress !!! unfinished 2014-08-07

The future …   what’s coming in the 21st century will be even more dramatic than the 20th century …

As Bette Davis said:  "Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy night."

Most of our experience of growth and change is through the concept of ADDITION, adding or subtracting a few items at a time. BUT we are ignoring the fact that we are part of processes that MULTIPLY. This kind of growth is called exponential. When there are just a few items,  multiplication can be difficult to discern from addition, but eventually the scale changes and we take off up the ramp, as we can see in this graph in the green curve:

growth curves

Failure to notice the difference can be fatal. As Edward Teller, famous physicist on the original Atomic Bomb project said: "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function.”

Humans are reactive.
They won’t deal with a crisis until it is unavoidable - often after the fact and too late. 

Maybe we got away with that when problems grew slowly, by addition. But now that we are faced with numerous changes which ramp up rapidly, by multiplication, we had better act in advance of problems getting out of control. 

We must become proactive in order to survive the near future.

The human population has doubled in my lifetime. How much can the planet and society carry?


Gordon Moore observed that computing power doubled about every two years, now know as Moore’s Law:

Some economic processes are taking off exponentially as well. In the USA where I live, the concentration of money is moving rapidly into the hands of a few, soon extracting all money out of the hands of most people.

And what does it mean when our computers exceed us???


 - - - more to come - - - 

As we take off up these exponential ramps, all I can do is to repeat Bette Davis:

"Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy night."


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